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INDIANAPOLIS — 10 thoughts as the Chicago Bears get going with a new regime following four days at the NFL scouting combine.
1. Ryan Poles called having only five picks in the upcoming draft — and without selections in the first and fourth rounds — the ‘hand we were dealt.’
At the same time, he said the Bears will be “open minded” about ways to add more draft picks , creating two possibilities. The simplest would be to trade down once or twice during the draft to acquire more capital. It’s unknown how appealing that prospect would be for Poles, whose first pick isn’t until No. 39 overall in Round 2. Unless the Bears see a big cluster of players in that range with similar grades, it might not be prudent and it’s unlikely there would be a big return.
Another avenue — and a more impactful way to acquire picks — would be to trade player(s) currently under contract.
The name some folks in town are wondering about is Khalil Mack, the 31-year-old edge rusher who had six sacks in seven games last season before heading to the injured reserve list.
As aggressive as former GM Ryan Pace was in acquiring Mack before the start of the 2018 season, will Poles be just as active in seeing what he can get in return for the six-time Pro Bowler and former NFL defensive player of the year? It’s at least worth pondering.
It wouldn’t be an easy decision to shop a defensive player new head coach Matt Eberflus can build unit around, but if the Bears aren’t certain how long it will take to be in contention again, the time to deal Mack is now. They’re installing a new defense and if there are going to be some growing pains in the process, why not see what you can get for a player near the top of the pay grade at his position that has been banged up the last two seasons?
What would the market be for Mack? A second-rounder with another late-round pick the teams could haggle over was what an NFC executive suggested at the end of the season. An AFC executive suggested using the Von Miller trade as a template. The Denver Broncos traded Miller to the Los Angeles Rams for second- and third-round picks in 2022. The Broncos also paid down Miller’s contract to make the deal happen, absorbing $9 million of the remaining $9.7 million of his 2021 salary to facilitate the trade.
Mack has a 2022 base salary of $12.05 million and has a $5.5 million roster bonus due March 18. The AFC executive said if the Bears paid the bonus so an acquiring team was on the hook for only the base salary, it could potentially make dealing Mack easier and put the Bears in a situation in which they could get a return similar to what the Broncos received. Perhaps Mack could bring a little more in return.
Let’s say the Bears trade Mack and get picks in Rounds 2 and 3. That would give Poles two picks in each of those rounds, meaning four picks in the top 100. The Bears would shed an excellent player when healthy, but Mack is owed $22.9 million in 2023. The Bears have so many needs on offense and defense that the picks can help them build a younger core while freeing up some cash to use for expenditures like an extension for linebacker Roquan Smith.
It wouldn’t be an easy decision to part ways with Mack but there isn’t an easy way for the Bears to add more draft picks before Day 3. If it’s something they might consider in the future, it’s better to do it sooner rather than later. The same discussion could be had regarding edge rusher Robert Quinn, who turns 32 in May and is coming off a franchise-record 18½-sack season. Quinn will be entering his 12th season and the Bears could probably get a little better return for Mack.
If Poles is being open minded about ways to add more draft picks, he’s considering nearly every scenario. But he might not have one that would bring him more draft capital than dealing Mack.
2. Allen Robinson is eager for his second adventure in free agency and his first as a healthy player.
The Bears signed Robinson to a three-year contract in 2018 when he was coming off a torn ACL suffered with the Jacksonville Jaguars. That led to questions about his physical condition when free agency opened about six months post-injury. The Bears felt good about the progress he had made and the three-year, $42 million deal proved to be a good one.
Robinson’s camp will get questions this time around, though, as the 28-year-old wide receiver saw his production dip significantly in 2021. He has been part of some underwhelming offenses, but it never prevented him from piling up quality statistics until he caught 38 passes for 410 yards and one touchdown in 12 games last season.
“Definitely healthy this time,” said Robinson, who enjoys the action and buzz at the combine. “It’s a little bit different but kind of the same. The same in the sense that I am stepping into (free agency) not off a year that I wanted to have or envisioned for myself. But blessed to be healthy. Whatever comes from it, I will be able to play some good ball right away and not have to go through any rehab. I’ll be able to get acclimated to whatever situation I may be in.”
Robinson remains confident he’s in position for a strong contract and that teams will not be concerned about his production.
“People are going to ask my agent about last season,” Robinson said. “I honestly believe the feedback we will get and what the tape actually shows and what people see, I don’t think there will be too many questions like that. When you put on the tape and conceptually things you can see and the differences and the changes from year to year, I’m not too concerned about it.”
Robinson chalked up the many problems the Bears had on offense to a multitude of reasons. His numbers took a bigger hit last season than anyone else when he was playing under the franchise tag at $17.9 million.
“Not to get too deep into it, I think that we started to get away from the roots of what we started early on,” he said. “I had been there for four years and the past year and a little bit into 2020, we started to get away from the identity that we had been trying to create. It was a constant movement and shift of our identity, and at the same time we weren’t able to really grasp anything. So we’re trying to balance what we were doing and trying to establish and then we would try to shift a little bit with some new things. It was a scale that just wasn’t balanced.”
The Bears have some major rebuilding to do at the position. Robinson is almost certainly headed elsewhere , leaving Darnell Mooney as the only playmaker for Justin Fields. GM Ryan Poles has a ton of work to do and will encounter some difficult decisions along the way.
Robinson will have some decisions soon too.
“I’m ready to step into whatever the next chapter will be as a healthy player,” he said. “It’s so tough to say how I will prioritize everything. Even my first time going through free agency, a lot of people on the outside frowned upon my decision that I made going to Chicago. To be able to go to Chicago, have one losing season, and helping lead a team to two playoff appearances … in this league, it only takes one or two players to shift any team. I’m looking for the situation that fits and feels right.”
3. Just before packing his bags to head for Indianapolis, GM Ryan Poles wrapped up pre-draft meetings the Bears started just after the Super Bowl.
Those meetings were a long and detailed process that helped get the club on the same page as it enters the final stages of draft preparation.
It’s a delicate time because with the exception of assistant GM Ian Cunningham, who was hired from the Philadelphia Eagles, Poles is working with a staff that has been in place and was working under guidelines and a system implemented by Ryan Pace. There is an added layer to the process when you’re trying to study draft prospects while also learning new co-workers.
“I’ve been through change before in Kansas City,” Poles said, “so I’ve been through that process of adjusting grade scales and values and how people communicate and the type of reports that have been submitted and how they’ve gone through All-Star games. I feel that I adapt really well.
“I will say this: I was very happy with the group of scouts we have right now. The meetings were incredible and before we broke, I told them all how proud I was. Because as a new GM you come in, you’re evaluating them, you’re evaluating the evaluators. At the end of it, the thing that stood out to me is there’s a group of really, really good people that worked really hard this fall to gather the information.
“My style was a little bit different, our meeting structure was different. As I said in the press conference, it was a culture of candor. It’s open. We watch tape. We have an order in the way we watch the tape. But after that everyone can speak their mind. If I see something different than you, then I bring it up to the room and we work through it. You can tell me where you saw it different and we’ll go find it. That group effort I think was refreshing to everyone.”
The culture of candor where the staff devours tape as a large group and discusses players one-by-one is something Poles was initially exposed to by former Chiefs GM John Dorsey. I asked a veteran scout who has been in meetings like that about the process and pros or cons as a GM learns about an inherited staff he inherits. The scout had some interesting thoughts.
“It’s either a rigid process or a complete free for all, depending on how you want to do it,” the scout said. “(Poles) likes the method of everyone watching tape together. I can see it both ways. If you are all watching tape together, you cannot be as thorough or as focused if you watched it on your own, and then the whole groupthink thing can come into play occasionally.
“Loud voices in the room and just the people that talk a lot or talk loud and talk with conviction, they dominate the discussion. It doesn’t always mean they know more and oftentimes it means they know less. All of this is more challenging in a group you don’t know. You have no idea who to listen to. When (Poles) is walking into a room of scouts he’s never worked with, that’s hard.”
As the scout described — and he’s been through pretty much the same situation before — there are multiple motivating factors in play.
“What can happen in those rooms, and it’s happened every time I’ve (been through this kind of change), you’re auditioning for a job,” the scout said. “It’s easier to have these wide open, group discussions when you have a clear, trusting relationship that has been established with people. In order to have candor, there needs to be trust. That’s psychology 101, right? It’s hard to speak with candor when you’re effectively trying to keep your job.”
This isn’t to doubt Poles’ assessment of the meeting and his positive initial reaction to the staff. It’s simply to recognize that there’s a dynamic in place in the get-to-know-you phase that makes all of it more challenging. Ultimately in the next year or two, Poles will need to make decisions regarding the future of some members of the staff he inherited.
4. If you’re looking for an under-the-radar name that might be impactful for coach Matt Eberflus, how about Cleveland Browns linebacker Anthony Walker Jr.?
The former Northwestern product spent four seasons with the Indianapolis Colts before heading to the Browns on a one-year, $3 million contract last year. He knows the defensive scheme and could be plugged in immediately at middle linebacker, which would allow the Bears to have Roquan Smith at the weak-side position.
“Walker has three-down ability,” a veteran scout said. “The Cleveland system was pretty zone heavy, which is what he was used to in Indy and he’s got the speed to match an athletic tight end or a slot receiver. He can key and diagnose in the run game. He’s got good second-level range. Not elite, but it’s good, and he can still be a disruptive player.”
Walker is only 26 and made 113 tackles for the Browns last season. He had a career-high 124 for Indianapolis in 2019. The Colts had rave reviews about him before he exited.
“What makes Anthony so good is his ability to see things fast and beat guys to the punch,” Eberflus said, according to the Indianapolis Star. “He’s able to do that down in, down out, and that’s why he’s been such an effective linebacker for us over the last couple of years.”
GM Chris Ballard was effusive in his praise, making it clear Walker was a positive influence for a locker room and organization.
“I’ve got a special relationship with Anthony Walker,” Ballard told the Indy Star. “Selfless, team guy, rare leader. I hope he gets into coaching or scouting one day. Mark my words, Anthony Walker, if he gets into coaching, will be a head coach in the National Football League some day, and if he gets into scouting, he’ll be a general manager. He’s brilliant. He’s absolutely brilliant, and he’s made of the right stuff.”
Eberflus brought four coaches with him from the Colts. With spots to fill on all three levels of the defense, it stands to reason he’ll want to bring in a player familiar with the scheme and demands of the staff. Walker’s familiarity with the defense could even allow him to call plays in the huddle. Maybe it’s a move the Bears explore and it probably would be one that wouldn’t cost a ton, certainly not what the team has been paying Danny Trevathan.
5. One thing that bodes well for the Bears is some of the strengths of this draft class match up well with the team’s needs.
That’s easy to say when the Bears will be in search of help at a lot of different positions this offseason, but I think it holds true in this case.
GM Ryan Poles didn’t get far into his introductory news conference before talking about improving the offensive line. The guess here is that is something he probably discussed with Chairman George McCaskey in the hiring process. There is a good crop of linemen in this draft, good enough that the Bears can get a solid player in the second round if they don’t knock out all of their needs in free agency.
Cornerback also looks deep, at least in the estimation of Baltimore Ravens GM Eric DeCosta, whose team has consistently fared well in the draft. There isn’t a consensus No. 1 pick and perhaps the crop of quarterbacks leaves something to be desired, but there is depth at some key positions for the Bears. They absolutely need help at cornerback with Jaylon Johnson as the only established starter.
“This is an interesting draft class,” DeCosta said. “Offensive line is very, very strong this year. We’ve had a chance to meet with some guys already. Impressed with the players that we’ve met with. Outside linebacker, for us, which would be the 4-3 defensive end, but for us the 3-4 outside linebacker-type guys, the edge players is a strong class. And then cornerback as well. It looks pretty deep. It looks like you can get a corner pretty much at any point throughout the draft process.”
The last comment by DeCosta is especially meaningful for the Bears because they are short on draft picks. If they can get a cornerback who has a shot to contribute with a Day 3 pick, that’s a bonus. Just a couple ideas to file away and consider after we see how the team handles some needs in free agency.
6. Could some Bears offensive linemen be on the move?
If you’re reading between the lines with what GM Ryan Poles said Tuesday, it’s at least possible. Poles was answering a question about what he liked on the offensive side of things when he said “there’s good linemen as well. It’s just continuing to tweak that and making sure we get everyone that’s fit and in the right spots.”
So, who moves where? It’s too early to say without more clues. A logical guess is the Bears try Teven Jenkins anywhere but left tackle. As I wrote last spring, I couldn’t find another team that considered the former Oklahoma State Cowboy a potential left tackle in the NFL. Of course, it’s difficult to move Jenkins unless you have someone to replace him, right?
Perhaps the Bears want to look at Larry Borom at guard? Cody Whitehair could return to center but I think he clearly has been at his best playing guard. There might be more questions than there are answers at this point.
From the sound of things, the team is attempting to gauge what the market could look like for James Daniels, the former second-round pick who is slated to be an unrestricted free agent. One source estimated Daniels will get a contract in the neighborhood of $8 million to $12 million annually. If the Bears really like Daniels, they should work hard to keep him in the fold because it wouldn’t count against them in the formula to figure out compensatory draft picks for 2023. If not, there’s a good handful of quality interior linemen set to hit the market and the depth in the draft.
7. The kickoff has been under close inspection by the NFL in recent years and now safety of punt returns is being studied closely.
The league has a committee reviewing punt returns and injuries on those plays. Are there too many high-speed collisions leading to injuries? Are guys pulling up with soft-tissue injuries after running full speed downfield? A lot of questions need to be answered before anyone is going to consider possible rule tweaks to make the play safer.
Speaking of punt returns, Pro Bowl return man Jakeem Grant is slated to be an unrestricted free agent. The Bears traded for him early last season and he provided a spark. It sounds like there’s enough interest in Grant that he could sign elsewhere. If so, add return man to the list of holes the Bears need to fill.
8. The NFL and NFLPA suspended all COVID-19 protocols on Thursday, hopefully a good sign for football and everything else moving forward.
The league is going to continue to monitor the situation keeping the health of everyone in mind, but this means free agency and the predraft process with visits and pro days should go off without a hitch.
Maybe it will mean greatly improved media access for the 2022 season as well. That would be a real bonus for everyone involved.
9. It’s unlikely there is a coach in town that will foot a bigger bill than the one former Bears assistants Joe DeCamillis and Keith Armstrong will split Saturday night.
DeCamillis and Armstrong will pay for drinks and dinner at the annual special teams coaches outing. Tradition is the coordinator of the Super Bowl champion team pays. Because there was no combine last year during COVID-19, DeCamillis and Armstrong will share the tab, which typically runs more than $7,000.
“It’s a bill you want to be picking up every year,” said DeCamillis, who worked for the Bears for two seasons. “The tradition started back in about 1993 when Ray Pelfrey ran a kicking camp in Reno, Nev. We’d be sitting at the tables and Joe Avezzano had just won a Super Bowl with the Dallas Cowboys. I think it was Brad Seely who said, ‘The guy that wins the Super Bowl should buy everyone dinner.’ At the time, the bill was probably $300 because there were about 10 of us at a Mexican restaurant.
“When Reno and the kicking camp kind of fell off the circuit, we switched it to Indianapolis and the combine. You think about it and Joe Avezzano was a hell of a coach and Jimmy Johnson really got the thing started because the Cowboys and Jimmy put such an emphasis on special teams. If you didn’t do it the same way, you were going to get your ass kicked. That kind of started it for all of us. I’d love to buy everyone dinner once a year.”
Armstrong, who worked for the Bears from 1997 through 2000, is with the Tampa Bay Buccaneers and he’ll divide the bill with DeCamillis for his team’s triumph after the 2020 season.
10. Dallas and Los Angeles are bidding to host the 2023 combine — and I haven’t encountered a person who thinks moving the event is a good idea.
Money — not convenience and practicality — drives every decision by the league. Indianapolis has been an excellent host for a long time because it’s an easy downtown to navigate with convenient access to medical facilities needed to shuttle players to and from for testing.
Downtown Indianapolis is configured perfectly to handle big events and NFL personnel — scouts, coaches, agents, etc. — all know where they’re going and where to meet.
We’ll see what happens but shifting the location of the combine isn’t high on the to-do list of anyone I know. Of course, I don’t roll with bean counters.