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The Chicago Blackhawks dealt a blow to the Pittsburgh Penguins’ playoff hopes with a 5-2 upset Tuesday, but they also didn’t do themselves any favors in the NHL draft lottery standings.
With the win, keyed by goalie Petr Mrázek’s 38 saves, the Hawks no longer own the worst record in the league.
While the Columbus Blue Jackets picked up a point with a 4-2 overtime loss to the Philadelphia Flyers, the Hawks added two points to leapfrog Columbus in the points race, 58-57.
Then in a late West Coast matchup, the Anaheim Ducks lost to the Vancouver Canucks 3-2, which again bumped the Hawks in the points column: from last place to third worst.
In the Connor Bedard sweepstakes, it’s a race to the bottom — and the Hawks are now losing.
The Hawks have only their season finale left, hosting the Flyers at the United Center Thursday.
Two of their competitors for the No. 1 overall pick — the Blue Jackets and San Jose Sharks — have two games remaining on the schedule.
While the other teams’ schedules give them a chance to gain points on the Hawks, the Hawks’ final opponent — the Flyers — is the worst of the bunch.
- Blue Jackets: vs. Penguins on Thursday, vs. Buffalo Sabres on Friday
- Sharks: at Calgary Flames on Wednesday, at Edmonton Oilers on Thursday
- Ducks: vs. Los Angeles Kings on Thursday
Once all teams play 82 games, the first tiebreaker in the standings is regulation wins, and the Hawks likely will “win” that category with 18. The Blue Jackets have 15 and the Ducks are at 13, so neither team can catch up.
And even if the Sharks (16) were to win twice in regulation to tie the Hawks, the Hawks would have them beat with the next tiebreaker: regulation wins plus overtime wins. The Hawks currently have 24; the Sharks, 21.
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The last-place finisher will have an 18.5% chance of winning the first draw in the NHL draft lottery, but a 25.5% chance of winning the No. 1 overall pick because teams that finish 12 through 16 are limited to moving up 10 spots.
Worst case scenario for the Hawks? They fall to fourth place, and then the math changes significantly. Their odds for winning the first draw and the No. 1 pick drop to 9.5%.
Dropping to the fifth or even the sixth slot could also be a very real possibility. That would put the Hawks out of the running for one of the Big Four: Bedard, Adam Fantilli, Matvei Michkov and Leo Carlsson.
Prospects like 5-foot-10 winger Zach Benson and 6-foot center Will Smith are no slouches, but the consensus is there is a notable drop-off among prospects after the Big Four.
Given all the Hawks went through to get in position for a rare generational players — including the trade deadline purge — it would feel like a big letdown to settle for anything less.
If there’s a silver lining, it’s that the Hawks have beat the lottery odds twice in the last two decades.
Back in 2019, the Hawks jumped from the 12th spot to third and drafted Kirby Dach. And in 2007, they famously moved up from fifth place to first to draft Patrick Kane.
