Illinois congressional races in suburbs and downstate could be key for control of U.S. House

With the control of Congress up for grabs in a polarized nation, several contests for the U.S. House of Representatives in Chicago’s suburbs and downstate Illinois were being closely watched nationwide on Tuesday.

Though new district boundaries were drawn up to favor the Democrats following the 2020 census, some races were seen as potentially being very tight, even those with incumbents Democrats seeking reelection.

Democrats went into the election holding 220 House seats to 212 for Republicans. Elections in the middle of a presidential term typically favor the party out of power, especially in times of inflation and low favorability ratings for the president, in this case, Joe Biden.

Biden flew into the Chicago area this past weekend to campaign on behalf of Democratic incumbents including Rep. Lauren Underwood, who faced a challenge from Republican Scott Gryder, the Kendall County Board chairman, in the 14th District.

One of the most closely contested races was in the new 17th District, which covers the northwest corner of the state, from Rockford west to the Mississippi River and the Quad Cities, then running south to Peoria and Bloomington.

The 17th was considered one of the tightest races in the country, pitting two newcomers trying to succeed Rep. Cheri Bustos. Fellow Democrat Eric Sorensen, a TV weather forecaster, faced off against Republican Esther Joy King, a lawyer in the Army Reserve and daughter of missionaries, who has a private law practice in East Moline.

King outraised her opponent significantly in campaign money, as of Oct. 19, with $4.8 million in total receipts from 5,500 individual contributions, compared with Sorensen’s $2.6 million, federal records showed. She received contributions from political action committees connected to Republicans such as former President Donald Trump’s ambassador to the United Nations, Nikki Haley, and House Minority Leader Rep. Kevin McCarthy, as well as associations of auto dealers, insurance agents and corn growers, among others.

Her campaign called for lowering inflation, fewer taxes and tariffs, private health care insurance, jobs and economic growth. She’s against abortion rights. King narrowly lost in 2020 to five-term Democratic incumbent Bustos, who is retiring.

Trump narrowly won the district in that election, but the Daily Kos reports that Biden would have won the newly drawn district 53% to 45%.

Sorensen who worked 22 years as a television meteorologist, said on his website that he had faced discrimination as a gay man previously living in the South.

He leaned into his weather forecaster background with a campaign slogan, “Forecasting a bright future for Illinois,” and calling for measures to fight climate change. He supports abortion rights, questioning whether the U.S. Supreme Court that overturned Roe v. Wade might also end same-sex marriage.

Sorensen too said he’s more focused on jobs in the blue collar district.

Another closely watched race is the 14th District, where Democratic Underwood faced a challenge from Republican Gryder.

The Cook Political Report recently downgraded the Democratic advantage in the 14th from “likely” to “leans,” meaning Dems have a small advantage.

Gryder promised a “pro-growth, pro-family, pro-freedom” agenda. Underwood called for lowering health care costs, fighting inflation, and acting on climate change.

Underwood had a clear advantage in campaign funds, having outraised Gryder as of Oct. 19, $6.5 million to $575,000.

The 14th had covered the western suburbs from Joliet north to the Wisconsin border, but the remap shifted the boundaries from Joliet west to DeKalb, Ottawa and Peru, where more rural areas typically vote more Republican.

Slightly closer to Chicago, in the west and northwest suburbs and farmland, the 11th District pitted scientist and Democrat Rep. Bill Foster against Republican challenger Catalina Lauf.

Lauf, a former Trump appointee to the Commerce Department, campaigned on common Republican themes of fighting inflation, crime and illegal immigration. Foster said his background as a particle physicist was a unique advantage in Congress, and campaign commercials painted Lauf as a “MAGA extremist.”

The district was redrawn significantly from its current home in the southwest suburbs to run instead from Bolingbrook north to McHenry County and west nearly to Rockford.

Much of the district is new to Foster and more rural, but Daily Kos calculated that voters in this new district would have gone 57% for Biden and 42% for Trump, a decided Democratic advantage.

In the North Shore’s 10th District, Democratic Rep. Brad Schneider portrayed himself as a moderate willing to work with anyone, as he tried to fend off a challenge by businessman Joseph Severino.

Severino had been head of his own business, before filing for reorganization bankruptcy. He took a moderate stance for a Republican on abortion, saying he opposed it but would not set any bans on it.

Traditionally, the 10th had been a Republican bastion, but after Rep. Mark Kirk moved to the Senate, Schneider and Bob Dold Jr. took turns winning the seat before Schneider reclaimed it.

Downstate, in the new 13th District, which runs from Champaign southwest through Springfield to East St. Louis, Republican Regan Deering faced off against Democrat Nikki Budzinski. Both candidates emphasized issues that affect voters’ wallets in the moderate district.

Budzinski has worked as a labor union advocate for firefighters, food service employees and other workers. She’s also worked as a senior adviser to Illinois Gov. J.B. Pritzker on labor issues and has served as the chief of staff for Biden’s office of management and budget, which helped devise his administration’s coronavirus relief plan.

Deering, 46, is the granddaughter of a business executive with the Archer Daniels Midland food processing company and chaired the Decatur Public Schools Foundation. She was endorsed by the Illinois Farm Bureau.

Deering told the Tribune that her top priorities include controlling inflation, securing the country’s borders to prevent drug trafficking, and curbing “out-of-control” federal government spending.

Budzinski said voters in her swing district are most concerned about their pocketbooks, having a good job and affordable health care.

Several seats in Chicago’s suburbs were considered safer bets for the Democrats.

Rep. Raja Krishnamoorthi faced Republican Chris Dargis in the 8th District, which, unlike other districts, was left largely intact in the remap, staying in the northwest suburbs, including Schaumburg and Elgin.

Dargis is a retired Navy officer who once studied in Russia, and worked as an executive in retail. He called for energy independence, lowering inflation and funding law enforcement to lower crime.

Krishnamoorthi, a three-term incumbent, pledged to defend the Affordable Care Act’s health insurance for millions of people and combat climate change, and, as the son of legal immigrants, called for comprehensive immigration reform.

In the 9th District, Rep. Jan Schakowsky had held the office since 1998, after serving eight years in the Illinois General Assembly. She faces Republican Max Rice, an energy consultant and stand-up comic who was unopposed in this year’s primary. The new district has been stretched in a thin band from Evanston to McHenry County.

In rural areas, the remap has concentrated many Republican voters into two districts. In the southern tip of the state, the 12th District features incumbent Republican, small business owner and former Marine Mike Bost, who’s held office since 2014, against Democratic challenger, Navy veteran and former union president Homer “Chip” Markel.

The most Republican district in the state is the 15th, which was created by combining parts of the 13th and 15th districts in central Illinois, after Illinois lost one congressional seat due to declining population.

With Trump’s endorsement, Rep. Mary Miller, who took office in 2020, defeated 13th District Republican incumbent Rodney Davis in the primary. In the general election she faced Democrat and commodity broker Paul Lange.