Column: Will Matt Mervis or Brennen Davis have a shot at making opening day on a crowded Chicago Cubs roster?

The time-honored idea of a rookie forcing his way onto a team’s opening-day roster with a sizzling spring training seems to have gone the way of the complete game, the sacrifice bunt and the brushback pitch.

It seems like a lifetime ago that Chicago Cubs manager Dusty Baker began the spring of 2003 by inviting fans to dream of the proverbial phenom emerging to win a job.

“Everybody goes to spring training looking for an Albert Pujols,” Baker said of the St. Louis Cardinals slugger who had been a no-name only two years earlier. “You have to leave some room for some spontaneous surprise.”

The game has changed drastically since then. There is little spontaneity in the modern baseball mindset and few surprises when it comes to opening day rosters.

This Cubs spring camp, which begins Feb. 15 in Mesa, Ariz., figures to be no different.

Cubs fans can recite the litany of supposed spring phenoms who would never make it big, from Gary Scott to Kevin Orie to Felix Pie. They also can point to the last time a Cubs rookie actually lived up to the spring hype, when third baseman Kris Bryant hit eight home runs in his first 25 Cactus League at-bats in 2015.

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When manager Joe Maddon worked Bryant out in the outfield in late March, Cubs fans hoped he had beaten the odds and would make the team.

“I’m still here and still standing,” Bryant told reporters.

But Bryant was sent to Triple-A Iowa a week later despite leading the majors with nine homers and a .425 average. Mike Olt was handed the third-base job, and by keeping Bryant off the 25-man roster for at least 12 days, the Cubs retained his rights through 2021 instead of 2020.

In a few weeks, the Cubs will bring first baseman Matt Mervis and outfielder Brennen Davis to camp with a theoretical shot at becoming a spontaneous surprise.

But Davis is coming off an injury-marred season after dealing with a stress reaction in his back, and Mervis is not on the 40-man roster. Both face uphill battles to make it to Wrigley Field on opening day, but isn’t that what makes spring training great?

The signing of left-handed hitting Eric Hosmer to a one-year deal was seen as the move that officially blocked Mervis, who also hits from the left side, from starting the season at first. Hosmer was a cheap option at the major-league minimum $720,000 after the Boston Red Sox released him, and if he doesn’t rebound offensively it wouldn’t be shocking to see the Cubs go in another direction by midseason.

When asked how much Hosmer will play, Cubs President Jed Hoyer said at the team convention that the veteran would get plenty of at-bats.

“It’s yet to be seen, but certainly we expect (Hosmer) to play every day against right-handed pitching for sure,” Hoyer said. “We’ll see how he does. He has an excellent reputation as a clubhouse guy. He’s had a really impressive career.

“I think getting him at a time when he’s coming out of a situation where obviously (the San Diego Padres) were trying to trade him for quite a while on that (eight-year, $144 million) contract, this is a fresh start for him.

“I know he’s excited about it and I think he can really do a lot of good things for us.”

Mervis seemingly could’ve been in competition for the designated-hitter role, even with Hosmer on board. But Hoyer then went out and signed veteran Trey Mancini to a two-year, $14 million deal, giving him another first-base/designated-hitter option from the right side.

Mervis, meanwhile, was selected to play for Team Israel in the World Baseball Classic, meaning he’ll be away in the middle of camp while the WBC team trains and begins play in Miami.

“I’m not going to put any extra pressure on myself trying to make the team by having a great game and spring training because those guys are smarter than that,” Mervis said at the Cubs Convention. “They’re not going to see me hit a home run or whatever and say, yeah, he’s ready to go. Obviously they’re going to do a little bit more work than that and evaluate things however they need to.”

Mervis hit 36 home runs with 119 RBIs and a .984 OPS in three stops last year, making the rise from Class A South Bend to Iowa. He turns 25 in April, but with only one solid season behind him, it makes sense the Cubs would want to see more out of Mervis before handing him a major-league job.

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Davis has a better opportunity than Mervis to make it to opening day but also has to be considered a long shot at best. The Cubs starting outfield is set with Ian Happ, Cody Bellinger and Seiya Suzuki, and Christopher Morel will be available off the bench when he’s not playing third.

Davis and 20-year-old Kevin Alcántara, who played at Class A Myrtle Beach, were added to the 40-man in November. The back problem forced Davis to leave the Arizona Fall League after only five game last year, but Hoyer said they hope it’s “behind him.”

“Hopefully the winter will allow him to really get strong again,” Hoyer said. “I think that was hard for him (in 2022). When he came back later on in the season, he wasn’t strong enough. We’ve talked about that. It was good to see pitching, but I don’t think he was strong enough to compete at his normal level.”

After two years of denying the Cubs were in rebuild mode, Hoyer proved it by giving spots to veterans trying to kick-start their careers again over kids from the system.

Davis, Mervis and the other top prospects will have their day.

But when that day will come is anyone’s guess.