By Lauren Burke
After an August offensive by President Donald Trump and Republicans in Texas to eliminate the congressional seats held by four Black members of Congress, Ohio and Virginia have entered the battle on the maps.
Whoever wins the war on congressional redistricting is likely to win the 2026 elections and control of the U.S. House in 2027 and 2028. President Trump is well aware that the powers of the purse lies with Congress. In an administration laser-focused on federal tax money and government contracts changing hands to political associates and donors, who controls the U.S. Congress is a major question. On August 20, the GOP-controlled Texas House of Representatives passed a new congressional map with a partisan-Republican slant: the map is estimated to target up to five seats currently held by Democrats, through merging or redrawing districts around Houston, Austin, Dallas-Fort Worth, and the Rio Grande Valley.
In mid-2025, Trump publicly urged Texas Republicans to focus on a rare mid-decade redistricting of congressional maps. “We have an opportunity in Texas to pick up five seats. We have a really good governor, and we have good people in Texas. And I won Texas,” Trump told CNBC’s Squawk Box on August 5.On October 29, Democrats who control the Virginia House and Senate launched a surprise special session a week before the November 4 elections that will likely result in a flip at the Virginia Governor’s mansion from Republican Glenn Youngkin to Democrat Abigail Spanberger. The Virginia House of Delegates approved a proposed constitutional amendment that will allow lawmakers to redraw Virginia’s congressional districts mid-decade, instead of at the ten-year mark alongside the CENSUS. As Republicans in Missouri, North Carolina,f and Indiana move to make it easier for Republicans to win the U.S. House by redrawing congressional maps, Ohio has made a deal.
Several political analysts are saying the redistricting deal in Ohio is “bipartisan.” Others say that the deal makes it harder for two Democrats to win re-election: Longtime Congresswoman Marcy Kaptur and another Democrat, Reps. Greg Landsman. Though many are speculating that Black Congresswoman Emilia Sykes’ district would become slightly more Democratic, only an election and careful analysis will answer that question. Democrats in Illinois, California, Maryland, Colorado and Virginia are in the process of taking action or are contemplating taking action on redistricting as the battle over congressional maps is certain to be the featured issue in the run up to the 2026 elections.
