Walking past three aisles of Halloween and Christmas decorations to get to the back-to-school supplies made me realize one thing. September is here. I appreciate the commercialism of the holidays because it makes us prepare for upcoming festivities. If you haven’t prepared in a timely manner for your upcoming Fantasy draft, here is some last-minute advice to decorate your draft board.
Josh Allen has been flying off draft boards in the mid-second round. Justin Herbert and Patrick Mahomes go in the late second/early third. There’s no crime in wanting a top-three QB that you never have to consider benching when facing difficult matchups. Just beware that elite players Stefon Diggs, Alvin Kamara, Deebo Samuel, Saquon Barkley and Tyreek Hill were all taken after the top three QBs in my recent drafts. Counter drafting a top-three QB by getting one of the top tight ends in round three: Travis Kelce, Mark Andrews or Kyle Pitts. The increased point production from the TE position will compensate for the second-tier RB or WR you would have taken in the round.
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The risk of injury is 16% greater at running back than any other position in the NFL, that’s why they’re always drafted so early in Fantasy. Protecting your investment should be at the top of your to-do list. Make sure you have the true backup to your stud RB. When Dalvin Cook gets injured, as he does every season, Alexander Mattison steps in and gives identical or better production, which makes him the best handcuff in the NFL. A sleeper handcuff this year is Dontrell Hilliard. The speedster had TD runs of 68 and 39 yards filling in part-time last year for Derrick Henry. You will have to maneuver your picks more than you’d like to handcuff these other RB tandems: Nick Chubb/Kareem Hunt, Ezekiel Elliott/Tony Pollard, Javonte Williams/Melvin Gordon, Aaron Jones/A.J. Dillon, Cam Akers/Darrell Henderson, David Montgomery/Khalil Herbert and Christian McCaffrey/D’Onta Foreman.
Not all handcuffs are created equal. Benny Snell of the Steelers could never replicate what starting RB Najee Harris does on a football field, giving no reason to roster Snell. The same goes for Chuba Hubbard. We all thought he would be a superstar stepping in for the often injured Christian McCaffrey. Instead, Chuba averaged a pedestrian 3.6 YPC and was non-existent in the passing game. Jamaal Williams is a dynamic speaker and wonderful teammate in Detroit. Every high school football coach in America should Google his inspirational huddle speech from episode one of “Hard Knocks.” As eloquent as Williams is, his ineffective running spoke volumes as a poor replacement for the injured D’Andre Swift last year. Don’t bother handcuffing these other backs: Cordarrelle Patterson/Damien Williams, Jonathan Taylor/Nyheim Hines (I like Hines as a standalone RB in PPR), Alvin Kamara/Mark Ingram, Saquon Barkley/Matt Breida.
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You would think that kickers who play in a dome would have a considerable advantage over their outdoor counterparts. But I can find no evidence to support this claim. Daniel Carlson led all NFL kickers in points scored in the comfy confines of the domed Allegiant Stadium, but Northeasterners Nick Folk (New England), Justin Tucker (Baltimore) Tyler Bass (Buffalo) and Chris Boswell (Pittsburgh) all kicked outside and finished within 15 points of Carlson’s 150. That’s less than a one-point per game difference. The same held true in 2020 as Tucker and Bass were within 14 points of the league-leading Carlson. I won’t recommend starting a kicker in a hurricane or snowstorm, but don’t be afraid to choose an open-air booter. There’s nothing like the great outdoors.
Rosters were cut down this week. Surprises included Sony Michel, O.J. Howard, Marlon Mack and Kenyan Drake. Michel just signed with the Chargers, Howard went to the Texans, Mack joined the Texans practice squad and Drake signed with the Ravens. I knew all these signings the second they happened because FantasyGuru.com keeps me instantly updated in the GuruNews section of their website. Don’t enter the 2022 season without the award-winning FantasyGuru.com at your fingertips. Fantasy Guru has the best rankings, projections, podcasts, chatrooms, league syncing, data and tools in the business. If you subscribe before the Sunday NFL kickoff on Sept 11., you can save an extra 20% off. Just go to FantasyGuru.com and use the code BILL20 for instant savings. You’re welcome.
Followers of Fantasy Billboard know I pick on the Detroit Lions. After watching the mild mousers from Michigan on “Hard Knocks” this summer, I have a newfound respect for them. The hard-luck kittens lost five games by five points or less last year but did manage to defeat the Vikings, Cardinals and Packers at the end of the season. I still won’t roster any Lions on my Fantasy teams considering their best player is also their Achilles heel. D’Andre Swift has the skills to be a top-ten Fantasy RB, but he can’t stay healthy. After missing three games in 2020, he missed five games and played sparingly in two others last year due to injury. Another liability is QB Jared Goff. His average points per start (17.6) were lower than Sam Darnold, Taylor Heinicke and Teddy Bridgewater. That is some lowly company he’s keeping. Goff is not the long-term answer in the Motor City. I see a 1-7 start to the season. If they stick with Goff, and Swift can’t stay healthy, the Lions are in for a cataclysmic year.
We start our ‘Giddy Up!’ (start) and ‘Whoa Down!’ (sit) for Week 1 this Thursday.
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