California enters the 2026 election cycle with a large pool of registered voters, as 85% of eligible adults were registered to vote as of May, according to a new report from the Public Policy Institute of California.
The report found that 23.2 million of California’s 27.3 million eligible adults were registered. Voter registration, political engagement and past voting habits will help shape turnout in the June statewide primary and November general election.
“Likely voters are registered voters who cast ballots regularly and are politically engaged,” researchers Mark Baldassare, Dean Bonner, Lauren Mora, and Deja Thomas stated in the report.
California’s likely voters generally lean Democratic. Democrats make up 46% of likely voters, while Republicans and independents make up the rest.
Independent voters could be an important group to watch during the 2026 election cycle. Independent likely voters are more likely to lean Democratic, although many do not favor either major party or remain unsure.
The report found that likely voters do not fully reflect California’s broader adult population. They tend to be older, more educated and more affluent.
Older Californians make up a larger share of likely voters, while younger adults are less likely to participate regularly in elections. Likely voters are also more likely to own their homes and have higher household incomes.
The racial makeup of the likely electorate differs from the state’s overall adult population as well. White Californians are overrepresented among likely voters, while Latino residents make up a smaller share of likely voters than they do of the state’s adult population. Black Californians make up 6% of likely voters, slightly than their share of the state’s total population.
The researchers said voter enthusiasm and past voting habits have played an important role in determining who participates in California elections.
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