Jameson Taillon has a theory on the evolution of starting pitching.
“Innings are making a little bit of a comeback,” the Chicago Cubs starter recently told me. “I think innings are kind of sexy again.”
Well, it all depends on your definition of sexy.
If Taillon is correct, it means more starters lasting later in games before giving way to the parade of relievers and the pendulum swinging back to the pre-analytics era.
But we’re not quite there yet, and neither was Taillon in his Cubs debut Sunday. The team’s most prominent free-agent pitcher since Yu Darvish lasted only four innings in a 9-5 loss to the Milwaukee Brewers before 33,266 at Wrigley Field.
Taillon wasn’t particularly sharp but didn’t think it was “anything too major.” Could it have been the added adrenaline of making his first start with a new team?
“Yeah, maybe — there’s definitely some extra adrenaline,” he said. “But at this stage of my career, I’d guess I would’ve learned how to deal with that and make the adjustment on the fly and find a way to go six or seven.”
The Cubs headed to Cincinnati for a three-game series at 1-2. After losing on opening day, the Brewers took the series with strong pitching performances from starters Brandon Woodruff on Saturday and Eric Lauer on Sunday.
Dansby Swanson went 7-for-12 in the three games, while the rest of the Cubs combined for a .159 average (13-for-82). Patrick Wisdom hit a pair of solo homers Sunday, but the Cubs can’t depend on starting pitching to carry them every day.
“Overall there’s a lot of good things to take away from it,” Taillon said. “Just from the pitching side, when we’re in the zone, I think we’re going to be pretty good.”
After Marcus Stroman and Justin Steele threw six scoreless innings in their first starts, Taillon was hoping to follow their blueprint. But after being nicked for runs in the second, third and fourth and with the Cubs trailing 3-2, Taillon was replaced by Mark Leiter Jr. to start the fifth.
Taillon allowed three runs on seven hits, throwing only 63 pitches. Reliever Julian Merryweather gave up five runs in the sixth to put the game out of reach.
“That inning that got away from us, it was a lot of soft contact there to the end,” manager David Ross said.
Cubs pitchers issued six walks, four of which scored.
Despite Taillon’s short outing, Cubs starters figure to be asked to go longer this year, though Ross never has been reluctant to lift them early.
Last year only five major-league pitchers reached the 200-inning mark, which once was the goal of most starters heading into a season. Only Miami Marlins ace Sandy Alcantara threw more than 205 innings. In 2003, 44 pitchers logged 200 or more innings and 33 had more than 205.
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Analytics and the erosion of old-school managers have combined to change that thinking, for better or worse. But Taillon believes the longer a starter goes, the fewer relievers are employed in a game.
“The less you can exploit your relievers and have them be seen, the better,” Taillon said. “That’s part of why I throw so many pitches now, to try and get creative and get through the order without showing too many of the same ones.”
Taillon mixes a four-seam fastball with a sinker, slider, cutter, curveball and changeup.
“I’m throwing everything pretty much,” he said. “I think innings are still very important. Look at our team — we have multiple relievers that can throw multiple innings and pitch in different leverage situations. Bullpens are built differently.”
When I asked Steele what it would take for him to throw 200 innings this season, he took the question literally.
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“Just doing some quick math, if I average six innings, 30 starts, that’s 180,” he replied. “So 35 starts averaging six, that should get there.”
That would put Steele at 210 innings, a laudable goal but a significant reach under a manager who goes to his bullpen as much as Ross. Obviously Steele also would have to stay healthy and be effective along with having the faith of his manager to pitch into the seventh and eighth.
Steele averaged just under five innings in his 24 starts last year, finishing at 119 innings. Last year’s top five Cubs starters — Stroman, Steele, Keegan Thompson, Drew Smyly and Adrian Sampson — averaged 116⅔ innings apiece. Thompson started the season in the bullpen, while Sampson was demoted to Triple-A Iowa.
The Cubs bullpen’s 657 combined innings under Ross in 2022 was the highest total of any National League team and second-highest in the majors behind the Tampa Bay Rays. Houston Astros manager Dusty Baker used his bullpen the least — 495⅓ innings — and the eight teams with the fewest relief innings all made the postseason.
Ross was trying to find out what he had with a young pen in the final two months of 2022 after the Cubs dealt veterans David Robertson, Chris Martin, Scott Effross and Mychal Givens before the trade deadline. With Michael Fulmer and Brad Boxberger as his potential closers, Ross must figure out the best way to employ his middle relievers, including youngsters Thompson, Javier Assad and Adbert Alzolay.
If the rest of the starters can emulate what Stroman and Steele did in the first homestand, it would make Ross’ job exponentially easier. Taillon knows what he can do and no doubt will shrug off Sunday’s outing. Smyly and rookie Hayden Wesneski make their first starts Monday and Tuesday in Cincinnati.
But until the Cubs prove they can hit with consistency, the rotation’s margin for error is slim.
