By David L. Snelling | South Florida Times
MIAMI – In 2018, then-Tallahassee mayor Andrew Gillum upset U.S. Rep. Gwendolyn Graham in Democratic Primary in the Florida gubernatorial race.
Gillum won despite his opponent’s massive endorsements, a campaign war chest and support from her father, former longtime U.S. Senator and Florida governor Bob Graham.
Gillum was poised to make history as the first-ever Black governor in Florida’s history, but he narrowly lost to Republican Ron DeSantis, who was hand-picked by President Donald Trump during his first term.
As DeSantis is preparing to leave political office this year due to term limits, U.S. Rep. Byron Donalds (R-Fort Myers) is seeking the same history-making distinction as Gillum.
Buoyed by an endorsement from Trump, Donalds, 47, is the front runner for the GOP nomination for the 2026 midterm elections.
If he wins, it will most likely set up a showdown with potential Democratic nominee David Jolly, who’s leading in the polls as the party’s favorite.
But Trump’s declining popularity, the GOP’s latest actions including the war with Iran, high gas and food prices and an economic downturn might impact Donald’s chances of making history, according to several political strategists.
In the latest poll, Donalds leads in the GOP Primary by 54 percent, according to Fabrizio, Lee and Associates.
The percentage represents a nine-percentage point lead over Investor James Fishback (nine percent), Florida’s Lt. Gov. Jay Collins (7 percent) and former state House Speaker Raul Renners who has just 2 percent, which is less than the survey’s 4.78 percent margin.
Donalds’ chances of becoming Florida’s first-ever Black governor has doubled since 2025.
The congressman has also outraised his opponents, taking in roughly $81 million as of May 2026.
Donalds is positioned to heavily invest in Florida’s expensive television markets and ground operations.
“Undecideds have moved toward Byron Donalds at a greater rate than any other Republican candidate since January,” a polling memo reads. “Despite their constant lies and attacks, Fishback and Collins are not gaining any real traction, and Byron Donalds is clearly the overwhelming favorite to be the GOP nominee in this year’s election for governor.”
During an interview with Orlando News 6 last week, Donalds said he would, if elected governor, continue to have local law enforcement agents work with ICE agents to continue the crackdown on undocumented immigrants.
Donalds said law enforcement had his full support, and ICE has been operating within the confines of the law, “beyond a shadow of a doubt,” despite what critics say.
“We have a decision to make, every Floridian has to make that decision,” Donalds said. “Are we gonna abide by the law and be a law and order state, or are we going to choose to not do that? I choose to follow the law, and I choose to make sure that Florida complies with federal immigration law. We are going to continue that standard that Gov. DeSantis has set.
In previous interviews, Donalds said he had his eyes set on the Governor’s mansion when he served in the Florida House of Representatives as a Democrat.
He switched parties in 2010 and became involved in the Tea Party movement.
GOP leaders encouraged him to run for U.S. House of Representatives in 2012, but he finished fifth in a field of six candidates.
He ran again four years later and won.
But Donalds prompted backlash from several Black GOP and Democratic leaders for his comments about the Jim Crow era.
During a political outreach event in 2024, Donalds said that during Jim Crow, black families were together, and more black people were not just conservative.
“Black people have always been conservative-minded, but more black people voted conservatively,” he said. “And then, HEW, Lyndon Johnson, and then you go down that road, and now we are where we are. What’s happened in America the last ten years, and I say it because it’s my contemporaries…you’re starting to see more black people being married in homes raising kids.”
After Black leaders pushed back on his remarks, Donalds denied “that Black people were doing better under Jim Crow” or that “Jim Crow is great”, and also denied having been inaccurate when he said that black marriage rates were relatively high during that era.
During a campaign stop in Tampa this week, Donalds said his bid for governor is gaining momentum and is resonating with Black voters, even as he consolidates support within the GOP.
“We’ve actually been seeing a lot of love out there. I think there are people who, you know, they’re Black, they live in Florida,” he said. “They’ve kind of been watching for a while and now that we’re taking this step, they’re saying, you know what? Let me pay a little more attention. Let me hear what he has to say.”
Donalds said he believes the Black community will get behind his campaign because his political platform addresses the issues that are impacting their lives each day.
“When we campaign, we’re talking about insurance. We’re talking about health care. We’re talking about education, about these policies that really impact people’s lives. And, you know, I think when people are hearing that, especially when Black voters are hearing that, they’re saying, ‘Okay, you know what? He is talking about things that matter in my life as well, not just political talking points,” he said.
If Donalds wins the GOP nomination, Jolly is the presumptive Democratic nominee after Orange County Mayor Jerry Demings suspended his campaign following his cancer diagnosis.
Jolly previously served as a Republican Congressman representing Pinellas County before he was defeated in 2016 by former Gov. Charlie Crist.
Jolly became an outspoken critic of President Trump and left the GOP in 2018 before registering as a Democrat in 2025 and announcing his intent to run for Governor.
In several polls, Donalds leads Jolly by single digits, but in one poll among young people, Jolly had a four-point lead.
Jolly is seeking to become the first Florida Democratic governor in almost three decades.
He said Florida is moving in the wrong direction under the DeSantis administration.
“The ‘Free State of Florida’ is becoming one of the most expensive states in the country, and it is a place where you do not have the opportunity to exercise who you love or who you worship. You feel different in this state based on the color of your skin or where you were born, and that’s wrong,” Jolly said at a town hall meeting sponsored by the Tiger Bay Club in Orlando.
Jolly said Florida needs to create an economy that works for everybody, with a state government that provides services that stimulate the economy and where everyone is welcomed and empowered to participate.
“It doesn’t matter “whether you are from Pennsylvania, Ohio, or Mexico,” Jolly said. “Those are the values that define this candidacy,
DeSantis has yet to endorse any gubernatorial candidate, including Collins.
DeSantis might not support Donalds as his GOP successor given the bitter history after Trump endorsed the congressman over the governor’s wife, Casey DeSantis, who was rumored to be running.
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