It’s Game 3 in the first round of the NBA Playoffs, and we have 76ers vs. Nets player prop predictions.
The Nets desperately need a victory at home to have any chance to recover from a 2-0 deficit in this series. However, the betting market doesn’t appear too keen on their chances as the 76ers have been bet up a half point after opening as four-point favorites.
I’ve got to think that we see some fight out of this Nets team as they return home to play in front of their fans. As a result, I plan to focus only on the home team when building out my player props card.
We’re getting a great price here with Seth Curry because he tends to be aggressive when he comes into the game. Moreover, we saw his minutes increase to 20 after playing 16 minutes in the series opener.
Curry’s been productive in both games, shooting 53.8% from the floor on 7-of-13 field goal attempts and finishing with at least nine points in each contest. While I often factor in the recent form of players when it comes to selecting props, I tend to place an even greater emphasis on how their head-to-head performs against their opponents.
In Curry’s case, he’s exceeded this number in all four games against the 76ers this season. In January, he even had a game against Philadelphia where he erupted for 32 points in 35 minutes.
Curry registered at least one assist in each game against the 76ers, and the fact that this combo prop is the same price as his points and rebounds suggests that we’re getting a +EV price in this spot.
At a minimum, one could argue that this number should be higher, given that Curry failed to grab a rebound in both playoff games.
Given the pieces the Nets lost after trading Kyrie Irving and Kevin Durant, Cameron Johnson is a player they need to help shoulder the load. Johnson averaged 25.2 minutes per game with the Suns, but that number was up to 30.8 during the regular season after joining the Nets and 34 minutes per game during the two playoff games.
And while we’re dealing with a smaller sample size, the increase in his playoff minutes coincides with three additional shot attempts per game. Through two games in this series, Johnson ranks second in scoring for the Nets with an average of 23 points.
The third-highest scorer on the Nets is Spencer Dinwiddie with 13.
Given that the Nets have three players scoring in double figures, I’m not sure we should expect too many others to enter the fray. Look for Johnson to continue getting his share of shot attempts as a willing scorer in this Nets offense.
Pairing Johnson’s points with rebounds also make a ton of sense, as he’s good for at least four a game, thanks to his 6-foot-8 frame. Cleaning the glass will be a point of emphasis for the Nets after the 76ers outrebounded them 56-33 in Game 2.
