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At 30-32, Toronto holds the Eastern Conference’s ninth seed with a game lead over Washington. Meanwhile, Chicago is a half-game behind the Wizards for the East’s final play-in spot.
There’s some wait-and-see with these average NBA teams. Some will likely tank in an effort for a better draft pick, but others may take a run at a playoff spot in hopes of pulling a postseason upset.
We must factor otential tanking into our handicap for this game and all post-All-Star Break games.
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But, for now, let’s dive into the odds plus my pick and prediction for Bulls vs. Raptors.
Spread: Bulls +5 (-110) vs. Raptors -5 (-110)
Moneyline: Bulls (+170) vs. Raptors (-205)
Total: Over 220.5 (-110) | Under 220.5 (-110)
Toronto Raptors -5 (-110) at Caesars Sportsbook
The Bulls are 2-0 after the All-Star break following blowout victories over the Nets and Wizards. Both wins were dominant performances spearheaded by DeMar DeRozan (46 combined points) and Zach LaVine (59 combined points).
Meanwhile, Toronto followed up back-to-back post-break wins with a loss to Cleveland. The Raptors also failed to cover a 7.5-point spread in their win over Detroit the night prior.
Given the two team’s recent performances, the public is heavily betting on the Bulls. Per The Action Network, almost 70% of the spread betting tickets are on the Bulls.
However, I’ve learned to fade the trendy underdog when betting on the NBA. And given we’ve seen some reverse line movement here — the Raptors have moved from 4.5-point favorites to 5-point favorites — I’m especially willing to fade the trendy underdog Bulls.
Additionally, I’m looking at this game in more of a buy-low, sell-high light.
The Bulls are overvalued after consecutive dominant performances against two mediocre teams. The Raptors will be a step up in talent from the Wizards or Nets.
Meanwhile, we can buy low on the Raptors in a bounce-back spot after the loss to Cleveland, which can be attributed to tricky scheduling since Toronto was on a back-to-back and had played three games in four nights.
It’s also tough to play in Toronto. The Raptors are 19-13 straight up (SU) and 18-14 against the spread (ATS) at home this season. The Bulls struggle away from home, posting a 10-20 SU mark and a 14-16 ATS record on the road this season.
The Raptors came away with a 113-104 win as four-point favorites the last time they hosted the Bulls, and I’m willing to bet that will happen again, especially when considering the betting market from a buy-low, sell-high perspective.
