Five storylines to watch for the 2022 Kentucky Derby

Crowds will be back in full to watch 20 of the best 3-year-old thoroughbreds in the world race for the most coveted title in their sport: Kentucky Derby champion.

Few sporting events combine the spectacle and condensed excitement we will see from Louisville on May 7. But these are unusual times for the Derby, coming off controversial results in two of the past three runnings and now marked by the absence of the sport’s biggest star, suspended trainer Bob Baffert.

From the competition to the messier side of racing, here are five stories to watch as we prepare for the first leg of the Triple Crown:

Baffert was the brightest star in the Derby firmament for a quarter century. Now, he’s persona non grata at Churchill Downs, suspended from the track that served as a stage for some of his grandest victories and for innumerable rap sessions with fans and reporters outside his Barn 33. We will not see the signature white hair and sunglasses this year, 12 months after Baffert-trained Medina Spirit crossed the finish line first in the 2021 Derby only to lose his victory because of a positive test for the anti-inflammatory drug betamethasone. Baffert has spent recent months embroiled in legal battles with the Kentucky racing officials who barred him. Meanwhile, the story took on a more tragic tone when Medina Spirit died suddenly in December.

Baffert is now the face of racing’s perpetual struggle to police medication, just as surely as he was the face of Triple Crown glory in 2015 and 2018. There are plenty of people in the sport who think that’s unfair, who argue that Baffert was more careless in his handling of medication protocols than reckless in his pursuit of victory. But officials in Kentucky and New York, where he’s facing a possible two-year suspension, have lined up against him, and he won’t be part of the Triple Crown this year, given that Maryland honors suspensions from other states.

So, will Baffert be out of sight, out of mind when a new group of Derby horses break on Saturday? Not so fast. Two 3-year-olds that he trained, Taiba and Messier, will run under the guidance of his former assistant, Tim Yakteen, piloted by a pair of riders, Mike Smith and John Velazquez, whom Baffert favored for big races. Both are serious contenders coming off their duel in the April 9 Santa Anita Derby. They’ll enter with the two highest Beyer speed figures (a measure of pace that accounts for distance, speed of competition and track conditions) in the field. If either wins, Baffert will be central to the story of the 2022 Derby, whether race organizers want him to be or not.

No trainer in North American history has won more races than Steve Asmussen, who has guided champions in the Preakness, the Belmont Stakes and the Breeders’ Cup. The Derby is the one major hole in his Hall of Fame resume, and he might never get a better chance to fill it than he’ll have with Epicenter, winner of the March 26 Louisiana Derby.

Trainers often talk about the importance of versatility in the Derby, which presents unusual challenges because of the large field and the unfamiliar distance for these still-developing horses. Well, Epicenter has won from the front and he’s won stalking the lead. Handicappers used to be skeptical of the Louisiana Derby as a prep race because of the six-week gap between it and the Kentucky Derby, but that’s no longer an unusual wait time for these horses. Epicenter has looked sharp in his workouts at Churchill Downs. His rider, Joel Rosario, is one of the best.

All of that said, Zandon presents many of the same virtues. He made his case for favorite status by roaring from the back of the pack to pass Smile Happy (another gifted Derby contender) in the April 9 Blue Grass Stakes. He has also run effectively sitting closer to the lead, which he might have to do in the Derby, a race that has not favored late chargers. His trainer, Chad Brown, has won four Eclipse Awards as the best in his field, but like Asmussen, he’s looking for his first Derby victory. His rider, Flavien Prat, was fifth in earnings last year, four spots behind Rosario.

Epicenter beat Zandon in the Feb. 19 Risen Star Stakes and has been the presumptive Derby favorite since he won his final prep in commanding fashion, but plenty of handicappers think Zandon is capable of a bigger step forward. It’s a compelling matchup.

No one is hotter than Cox, who has won the last two Eclipse Awards as most outstanding trainer. The Kentucky native picked up his first Derby win, albeit in undesired fashion, when Medina Spirit was disqualified. He also won the 2021 Belmont Stakes with Essential Quality.

Cox will likely have three horses, Cyberknife, Tawny Port and Zozos, in this Derby field. Cyberknife is the most accomplished of the bunch. His signature win came in the April 2 Arkansas Derby, a prep race that did not end up impressing many handicappers. But Cox said the performance made good on high-end talent Cyberknife had demonstrated in training, and it’s difficult to dismiss the trainer’s optimism, given his results from the last two years.

Zozos, a speed horse who might take the early lead, and Tawny Port, winner of the April 16 Lexington Stakes, have also improved, giving Cox a much better Derby hand than anyone expected a few months ago.

Few trainers do a better job getting their horses to the Derby than Todd Pletcher, who will be looking for his first win in the race since 2017. Mo Donegal made his case as a contender by charging from last place to take the April 9 Wood Memorial, New York’s signature Derby prep race. The Pletcher-trained colt looked sensational in the stretch as he ran down Early Voting, suggesting potential he had not previously demonstrated. He will face a steeper climb, trying to win with that style against a larger, more talented field at Churchill Downs.

Pletcher’s other Derby horse, Charge It, does not have a signature win on his resume, but he took on a huge leap in competition to finish second in the April 2 Florida Derby. He’ll be an intriguing longer shot on Derby day.

The horse that beat him in Florida, White Abarrio, will likely reside with Mo Donegal in the second tier of Derby contenders. He has won four times in five career starts for trainer Saffie Joseph Jr. and his tactical speed, backed up by some excellent workout times, should make him a good fit for the Derby.

When was the last “normal” Kentucky Derby? Maybe 2018, when Baffert-trained Justify kicked off his Triple Crown run? Even that race was subsequently complicated by news that the horse had tested positive for the anti-nausea drug scopolamine at his final prep race, but the news did not break until more than a year later.

Since then, we watched a disqualification decide the 2019 Derby. We lived through a reshuffled Triple Crown, with a Labor Day weekend Derby serving as the second leg, during the pandemic year of 2020. We saw Medina Spirit’s 2021 victory called into question and ultimately overturned because of his positive test for betamethasone. In recent months, the headlines around Baffert’s suspension and legal battles have arguably overshadowed the prep races for this year’s Derby.

So much noise, so little of it having to do with the best 3-year-old thoroughbreds in the country. It will not be easy for the 2022 race to transcend this context, but the Derby is an event built on the optimism of owners and trainers who yearn to test their most gifted young athletes on the largest possible stage. It never stops attracting fans, bettors and horsemen, despite the gloom that often pervades the sport.

148th KENTUCKY DERBY

Saturday, 6:57 p.m.

TV: Ch. 11